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name: nixtla-demo-generator description: "Generate production-ready Jupyter notebooks showcasing Nixtla forecasting workflows for statsforecast, mlforecast, and TimeGPT. Use when creating demos, building examples, or showcasing forecasting capabilities. Trigger with 'generate demo notebook', 'create Jupyter demo', or 'build forecasting example'." allowed-tools: "Write,Read,Glob,Bash(python:*)" version: "1.0.0" author: "Jeremy Longshore jeremy@intentsolutions.io" license: MIT

Nixtla Demo Generator

Generate interactive, production-ready Jupyter notebooks that showcase Nixtla forecasting workflows with complete data pipelines, model training, evaluation, and visualization.

Overview

This skill creates high-quality demonstration notebooks:

• Three library support: StatsForecast, MLForecast, TimeGPT
• Complete workflows: Data loading, preprocessing, model training, forecasting, evaluation, visualization
• Production patterns: Best practices, error handling, performance optimization
• Instant demos: Ready for Nixtla CEO presentations, customer POCs, and documentation
• Customizable templates: Modify for specific use cases and datasets

Prerequisites

Required:

• Python 3.8+
• Jupyter notebook (pip install jupyter)
• At least one Nixtla library:
  • statsforecast - Statistical models (ARIMA, ETS, etc.)
  • mlforecast - Machine learning models (LightGBM, XGBoost)
  • nixtla - TimeGPT API access

Optional:

• NIXTLA_API_KEY: For TimeGPT demos
• Sample datasets (M4, custom time series)

Installation:

pip install jupyter statsforecast mlforecast nixtla pandas matplotlib

Instructions

Step 1: Choose Library

Select which Nixtla library to demonstrate:

# Options: statsforecast, mlforecast, timegpt
export DEMO_LIBRARY=statsforecast

Step 2: Generate Notebook

Run the generator script:

python {baseDir}/scripts/generate_demo_notebook.py \
    --library statsforecast \
    --dataset m4-daily \
    --output demo_statsforecast_m4.ipynb

Step 3: Customize (Optional)

Edit the generated notebook to:

• Add custom datasets
• Modify model configurations
• Adjust visualizations
• Include domain-specific context

Step 4: Execute Notebook

Run the generated notebook:

jupyter notebook demo_statsforecast_m4.ipynb

Or execute non-interactively:

jupyter nbconvert --to notebook --execute demo_statsforecast_m4.ipynb

Step 5: Export Results

Export to various formats:

# HTML for sharing
jupyter nbconvert --to html demo_statsforecast_m4.ipynb

# PDF for presentations
jupyter nbconvert --to pdf demo_statsforecast_m4.ipynb

# Python script for automation
jupyter nbconvert --to python demo_statsforecast_m4.ipynb

Output

• [library]_demo.ipynb: Complete Jupyter notebook with:
  • Introduction and setup
  • Data loading and exploration
  • Model configuration
  • Training and forecasting
  • Evaluation metrics (SMAPE, MASE, MAE)
  • Visualizations (forecasts, residuals, comparisons)
  • Next steps and resources

Error Handling

1. Error: ModuleNotFoundError: No module named 'statsforecast' Solution: Install required library: pip install statsforecast mlforecast nixtla

2. Error: NIXTLA_API_KEY not set (TimeGPT demos) Solution: Export API key: export NIXTLA_API_KEY=your_key or skip TimeGPT demo

3. Error: Dataset file not found Solution: Use --generate-sample-data flag to create synthetic dataset

4. Error: nbformat.validator.ValidationError Solution: Check Jupyter version compatibility: pip install --upgrade jupyter nbformat

5. Error: Kernel died while executing notebook Solution: Reduce dataset size or increase memory allocation

Examples

Example 1: StatsForecast M4 Daily Demo

python {baseDir}/scripts/generate_demo_notebook.py \
    --library statsforecast \
    --dataset m4-daily \
    --models AutoETS,AutoARIMA,SeasonalNaive \
    --horizon 14 \
    --output demo_statsforecast_m4_daily.ipynb

Generated notebook includes:

# Import libraries
from statsforecast import StatsForecast
from statsforecast.models import AutoETS, AutoARIMA, SeasonalNaive
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

# Load M4 Daily data
df = pd.read_csv('m4_daily_sample.csv')
print(f"Loaded {len(df)} rows, {df['unique_id'].nunique()} series")

# Configure models
sf = StatsForecast(
    models=[AutoETS(), AutoARIMA(), SeasonalNaive(season_length=7)],
    freq='D',
    n_jobs=-1
)

# Generate forecasts
forecasts = sf.forecast(df=df, h=14)

# Evaluate
from statsforecast.utils import calculate_metrics
metrics = calculate_metrics(df, forecasts, metrics=['smape', 'mase'])
print(metrics)

# Visualize
sf.plot(df, forecasts)
plt.show()

Example 2: MLForecast with Exogenous Features

python {baseDir}/scripts/generate_demo_notebook.py \
    --library mlforecast \
    --dataset retail-sales \
    --models LightGBM,XGBoost \
    --features lag,rolling_mean,date_features \
    --output demo_mlforecast_retail.ipynb

Generated notebook features:

• Lag features (1, 7, 14 days)
• Rolling statistics (mean, std, min, max)
• Date features (day of week, month, is_weekend)
• LightGBM and XGBoost model comparison
• Feature importance plots

Example 3: TimeGPT API Demo

python {baseDir}/scripts/generate_demo_notebook.py \
    --library timegpt \
    --dataset custom \
    --api-key $NIXTLA_API_KEY \
    --horizon 30 \
    --confidence-levels 80,90,95 \
    --output demo_timegpt_api.ipynb

Generated notebook demonstrates:

• TimeGPT API client initialization
• Data upload and validation
• Forecast generation with confidence intervals
• Probabilistic forecasting
• Anomaly detection integration

Example 4: Batch Generate All Three Libraries

for library in statsforecast mlforecast timegpt; do
    python {baseDir}/scripts/generate_demo_notebook.py \
        --library $library \
        --dataset m4-hourly \
        --output "demo_${library}_m4_hourly.ipynb"
done

Example 5: Custom Template with Branding

python {baseDir}/scripts/generate_demo_notebook.py \
    --library statsforecast \
    --dataset m4-weekly \
    --template {baseDir}/assets/templates/custom_branded_template.ipynb \
    --logo company_logo.png \
    --output demo_branded.ipynb

Resources

• StatsForecast Docs: https://nixtla.github.io/statsforecast/
• MLForecast Docs: https://nixtla.github.io/mlforecast/
• TimeGPT Docs: https://docs.nixtla.io/
• Jupyter Tutorial: https://jupyter.org/try
• M4 Competition: https://github.com/Mcompetitions/M4-methods

Related Skills:

• nixtla-timegpt-lab: Interactive TimeGPT experimentation
• nixtla-experiment-architect: Multi-model experiment design
• nixtla-schema-mapper: Data transformation for Nixtla format

Scripts:

• {baseDir}/scripts/generate_demo_notebook.py: Main notebook generator
• {baseDir}/assets/templates/statsforecast_template.ipynb: StatsForecast base template
• {baseDir}/assets/templates/mlforecast_template.ipynb: MLForecast base template
• {baseDir}/assets/templates/timegpt_template.ipynb: TimeGPT base template